Presidential Ambition 2008: Huckabee vs Vilsack

October is here and the leaves of change are beginning to blow. The first Tuesday of November will bring about either two final years of rubberstamping for President Bush or it will usher in a Democratic majority in the Congress causing Washington to come to a dead stop. If the Democrats take control and if history is any predictor, it is unlikely that the Republicans will return to power in 2008 since the last time the Senate changed party control in a given two years was 1947-1955 when party control alternated four times. This does not even begin to address the recent scandals, both moral and economic, that have plagued members of the Republican party recently. With that said this November will all but shape the campaign issues and usher in a two year long political season culminating with undoubtedly one of the most anticipated presidential elections in recent years.

Given that President Bush will be considered "lame duck" after the midterms, the election will be an open race among candidates from both sides of the aisle. Several prominent members of the Senate, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ), considered to be their party's frontrunners, have all but signaled their intention to run. Many others have begun to form exploratory committees and raise the necessary funds to wage their war of rhetoric in plain view of the American public.

So I thought I'd kick off the election season with a series of articles that look at the political players positioning themselves to be American's next commander in chief. I'll attempt to give you some basic information about them, their qualifications, strengths, weaknesses, and my overall assessment of their potential. Each article will attempt to give you a look at one Democrat and one Republican candidate. If any other minor party candidates have a strong showing in polling, then I will attempt to give them equal attention.

Disclaimer: Attributes that I list as "pros" or "cons" simply mean that I think this will work for or against, respectively, the candidate's overall success and in no way should imply that I personally find this to be a positive or negative quality. All information regarding the candidates stances on issues come directly from his or her official website or www.vote-smart.org.

Article One Mike Huckabee vs Tom Vilsack

Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Current Position: Governor of Arkansas
Previous Positions: Leutinenant Governor, Arkansas Commissioner of Education, Church Pastor
Religious Affiliation: Southern Baptist
Policy Focus: Education and health care reform

Issues and Stances - From the National Political Awareness Test
Abortion - should be legal only when the life of the woman is endangered.

Crime - supports increasing state funds for construction of state prisons and for hiring of additional prison staff. Is not opposed to the use of the death penalty. Supports prosecuting minors as adults in violent crime cases. Does not support the enactment of hate crime legislation.

Education - Support teacher testing and reward teachers with merit pay. Provide state funding to increase teacher salaries. Support abstinence-only sexual education programs.

Healthcare - Supports tort reform. Supports ensuring that citizens have access to basic health care through managed care, insurance reforms, or state funded care where necessary, but does not believe guaranteed medical care to all citizens is a responsibility of state government.

Accomplishments: Led a ballot initiative in 2000 that devotes all of the state's tobacco settlement money to improving the health of Arkansans. Arkansas is one of the few states spending all of its tobacco funds in this way.
Created the Healthy Arkansas initiative to encourage Arkansans to stop smoking, exercise more and eat healthier.

Analysis
Pros: Huckabee is a Southern Baptist Republican who could win every Southern State. His religious affiliation may hurt him in other areas of the country, however. He rates high on domestic policy issues, and is seen as champion of children's health and education which plays well with democratic leaning "soccer moms." He is term limited as governor, and the only other public office he could seek at this time is the U.S. House of Representatives, an unlikely venture and step in the opposite direction for someone who's been mentioned for 1600 Pennsylvania.

Cons: He is relatively unknown outside the midsouth, and would have a tough fight to win his home state if Hillary Clinton is the Democrat party's nominee for either President or Vice-President. Overall, He lacks of foreign affairs, environmental, and energy policy making experience.

Cabinet Considerations: If Huckabee truly has White House ambitions, he will most likely need to work his way up from Secretary of Education, Health and Human Services, or Agriculture. I don't see him bringing much to the ticket in terms of a VEEP spot at this time.

Askepulus' Prediction: Huckabee is a featherweight politician. If he has an average showing in Iowa, then I think he'll drop out after the New Hampshire primary. If he has an above average showing in Iowa, then he'll drop out after the first multi-state primary which includes South Carolina and Missouri.


Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
Current Position: Governor of Iowa
Previous Positions: Senator, Iowa State Senate, 1992-1998
Mayor, Mount Pleasant, Iowa, 1987-1992.
Religious Affiliation: Roman Catholic
Policy Focus: Energy & Biotechnology, Improving Iowa's economic infrastructure

Issues and Stances
Candidate did not take the National Political Awareness Test indicating his position on various issues facing his state and the country.

Accomplishments: Iowa experienced the second highest growth in personal income of any state in 2004 and has a current unemployment rate well below the national average. Exports of Iowa manufactured and processed goods grew to a record high of $6.4 billion in 2004, a 22% increase over the previous year.
During his two terms, energy generation capacity has increased 20% including the development of the country’s largest wind farm. Iowa now leads the nation in producing ethanol, with total production increasing by almost 300% in the past five years.
Expanded health care coverage to more than 90,000 previously uninsured children. Iowa is now a national leader in children’s healthcare coverage, with 94% of all Iowa children having health insurance. In addition, 30,000 previously uninsured adults between the ages of 19–64 are slated receive health coverage in Iowa.

Analysis
Pros: He is the first Democratic governor of Iowa in more than 30 years because of his overwhelming popularity. Because Iowa is always the first of the primaries/caucuses, he should perform well and have enough momentum to make it past New Hampshire to the first multi-state primary, including South Carolina and neighboring Missouri. But if he fails to win Iowa, he shouldn't bother going on to New Hampshire.
Vilsack's appeal for fiscal responsibility and his message that Democrats can do better appeal to voters, especially during an election season where voters who typically vote Republican are looking for any reason to vote another way.

Cons: He is relatively unknown outside the midwest. He is seen by some as overtly religious, which is unusual for a Roman Catholic. Likewise, neither Democrats nor Catholics perform exceptionally well in the South. And no Democrat has EVER won the White House without winning some southern states. He's already been accused of "flip-flopping" by Iowa Republicans attempting to derail his presidential aspirations. One last thing: You try saying "President Vilsack" three times fast!

Cabinet Considerations: He has emphasized reforming Iowa's energy policies including alternative fuel sources such as ethanol and has a fundamental knowledge of biotechnology making his a better candidate for Energy Secretary than President. His work on Iowa's infrastructure could land him the job of Transportation Secretary. Given that Iowa is a major crop producing state, anyone serving as governor is by default a consideration for Agriculture secretary.

Askepulus' Prediction: Vilsack, like Huckabee, is a featherweight politician. If he has an above average showing in Iowa, then he'll drop to the middle of the pack in New Hampshire and lose huge in the first multi-state primary which includes South Carolina and Missouri. If he has an average showing in Iowa, then he should just give his supporters' money back and not bother going to New Hampshire.

Head to Head Contest in the General Election: Huckabee pulls out a narrow victory in what will be one of the nation's poorest turnouts in history due to voter apathy.